Thursday, 28 October 2010

Anti-persistent movement anticipation system (AMA)

This system is opposed to the Persistent Movement Following system (PMF).

Condition:
15m time frame: FGDI Blue
30 m time frame: FGDI Blue

The market us usually range bound and we have to use a system for range.
There are many choices. Often Oscillators are used and everyone has its favorite.

From the classical oscillators my choices are:
-TRIX (this is a good oscillator)
-Normalized SSA (after a major work on Forex TSD we have end - pointed non repainting SSA)
-John Ehler's Oscillators from his book of Cybernetic Analysis for Stocks and Futures. (this is a classic, it is a big pleasure to read his books and his insights about oscillators)

In those market conditions it is a good choice to make a use of the Bollinger Bands. Usually I prefer two bands. One is a classical of 20 time period and one larger of 60 time period.

The market movement is so complex that is better to analyze it with the statistical instruments. Make your choice.

The KEY: The key of the system is that if the market makes a break-out beyond two standard deviations of the 60 Bollinger bands (sometimes even the 20, but it depends on the volatility) we have a probable fake break - out if the FGDI is far in the Blue Zone and there is not an increase in the Hurst difference indicator

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